HOW VALUABLE IS
A SENIOR QB???
By Jeff Sallas
When trying to look in the crystal ball and predict the upcoming SEC season I am starting to think that you simply need to look at the QBs. In the West the experienced senior QB is usually the key or sometimes a senior RB can be good enough to take the role. So you have to look at great senior RBs as well. It is all about leadership. Let’s look at 10 years of divisional SEC football…
The two exceptions to this theory in the West are the 1992 and 1996 Bama teams that had great defenses that led the way. Sometimes a defense is good enough to lead the way with an average offense that doesn’t make many mistakes. Other than these 2 years let’s look at the West since divisions stared:
1993: Auburn goes undefeated (but on probation) and is led by senior QB Stan White.
1994: Bama goes undefeated led by improved senior QB Jay Barker.
1995: Arkansas surprises the West led by gritty senior QB Barry Lunny.
1997: Auburn wins the West led by senior QB Dameyune Craig.
1998: Miss St wins the West led by senior MVP RB James Johnson.
1999: Bama wins the West led by senior MVP RB Shaun Alexander.
2000: Auburn wins the West led by senior QB Ben Leard.
2001: LSU wins the West led by senior QB Rohan Davey.
Obviously there is much more to a championship teams than a QB and RB but I think they may be the factor that can get a team over the hump. The evidence supports the theory. Eight out of ten years the SEC West champ was led by a senior QB or RB. I don’t think anybody in the West has a truly great defense this year so this maybe what needs to be looked at. To me this points to Bama coming out on top in the West led by senior QB Tyler Watts. Other possibilities include LSU led by junior RB Labrandon Toefield and Ole Miss led by junior QB Eli Manning. I don’t think Toefield is quite that good but Manning might be. However Ole Miss’ defense might be so bad that it might not matter.
In the East it is a bit different. Tennessee and Florida usually both have a very good QB so it is basically it is who has the better QB between Florida and UT. It doesn’t matter whether they are a senior. The only exceptions to this rule was 1999 and last year. In 1999 somehow Florida won the East shuffling between mediocre QBs. UT really should have won it behind senior QB Tee Martin but choked in Gainesville when they were the better team. Last year Rex Grossman was the best QB in the country but UT had a great RB in Travis Stephens along with a very good QB in Clausen. Otherwise:
1992: Florida won the East led by senior QB Shane Matthews.
1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996: Florida wins the East AND the SEC 4 years in a row led by the best college QB I have ever seen, Danny Wuerffel.
1997: UT wins the East led by senior QB Peyton Manning.
1998: UT wins the East led by QB Tee Martin.
2000: Florida wins the East led by QB Rex Grossman.
Looking at this trend it is still hard to pick the East this year. Georgia is supposed to be in the race but I don’t think they are ready for prime-time yet. I think it will be, for the 11th year in a row, either Florida or UT. Grossman and Clausen are both back but again this year I think Clausen will have the better running game to back him up.
SEC 2002
COMPOSITE SCHEDULE
Here is an Excel spreadsheet with the all
the SEC schedules:
To print on just one page: go to the File – Page Setup menu option,
click on “Margins” tab and enter left and right margins of “0.1”. This should allow you to print the schedule
on one page.
Some passing comments on this year’s
schedule…
HARDEST SCHEDULE: Florida by a longshot with Miami and FSU
both out of conference.
EASIEST SCHEDULE: Arkansas makes me “physically sick” with
their pathetic non-conference schedule.
With 4 games this year there is just no excuse for not playing one
decent team (I define a decent opponent as one you have to play a home-and-home
with). I don’t think I have ever seen a
worse non-conference schedule. Boise
St, South Florida, Troy St and La Laf???
Hideous. If any SEC team gets
left out of the bowl picture it should be Arkansas.
BEST NON-CONFERENCE GAMES FOR EACH TEAM
(except for Arkansas): Auburn/USC,
Bama/Oklahoma, Florida/Miami, Georgia/Clemson, Kentucky/Indiana, LSU/Virginia
Tech, Ole Miss/Texas Tech, Miss St/Oregon, Tennessee/Miami and Vandy/Ga Tech.
BEST SEC GAMES WEEK BY WEEK (SEC action
doesn’t start till third week of the season):
Week 3:
Georgia/South Carolina
Week 4:
Florida/Tennessee
Week 5:
LSU/Miss St
Week 6:
Bama/Georgia
Week 7:
Florida/LSU, Georgia/Tennessee
Week 8:
Auburn/Florida, LSU/South Carolina
Week 9:
Bama/Tennessee, Auburn/LSU
Week 10:
Florida/Georgia, Tennessee/South Carolina
Week 11:
Bama/Miss St, Georgia/Ole Miss
Week 12:
Auburn/Georgia, Bama/LSU, Florida/South Carolina
Week 13:
Auburn/Bama, LSU/Ole Miss
Week 14:
Miss St/Ole Miss